2017 Election Digest

I spent hours trying to write my take on tomorrow’s election, but I haven’t really been following it that closely and I felt I was just rambling nonsensically. I think the Conservatives will win, with an increased majority. I think it is unlikely but not impossible that either Labour will win or that the Conservatives will win by a landslide. I quite hope Ed Davey re-takes my home constituency of Kingston and Surbiton for the Liberal Democrats. I’m conscious that there is a lot of uncertainty and that the range of possible outcomes is very wide. So I decided simply to put together a reading list of links for anyone looking to enlighten themselves.

To begin with, if you have literally no idea what’s going on you might want to try the BBC general election FAQ page – which begins with the question “what is a general election?”. You can also use this page to find out which constituency you live in and who your local candidates are:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39631768

You can get more detail here:

http://democraticdashboard.com

You can then find a breakdown of where the parties stand on the key issues here:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-39955886

This page provides an overview of opinion polls showing how people intended to vote at different stages in the build-up to the election:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-39856354

You can get more detail here:

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk

And there’s a model showing how this might translate into seats in parliament by Dr Chris Hanretty of the University of East Anglia here:

http://electionforecast.co.uk

Lord Ashcroft’s version, which is based on constituency-level polling, comes to similar conclusions:

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2017/06/ashcroft-model-update-potential-majorities-seat-seat-estimates/#more-15313

This post, by polling expert Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University, talks about why the polls are so confusing:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40167578

This post, by famed American poll aggregator Nate Silver (someone who looks at all the different polls and weights them depending on how reliable the same polling company has been in the past), explains the uncertainty that still surrounds the vote despite the number of polls taken:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/are-the-u-k-polls-skewed/

As does this earlier post:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-u-k-snap-election-is-riskier-than-it-seems/

This post, from BBC Newsnight Policy Editor Chris Cook, tries something different. It looks at where the main parties have sent their leaders to campaign, and uses this to estimate how well they think they are doing:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40176539

There’s a bunch of other stuff out there, but this is already more than most people will read. So I’ll wrap up with two final links.

This page tells you who to vote for in your local area to vote against the Conservatives:

https://www.tactical2017.com

This video sums up the election campaign quite well:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p7iUYWMD77w

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